No argument from me that Joe Nathan is a REALLY good pitcher. I don’t feel his injury will be as devastating to the Twins as is being made out, however, as most competent relief pitchers could have approximated Nathan’s save opportunity conversion rate in 2009 given the same game situations.

Let’s start with the “Classic Cheap Save” -entering a game to start the last inning with no outs, no inherited runners, and a lead of 1, 2, or 3 runs. 45 of Nathan’s 52 save opportunities in 2009 (87%) fell into this category. Nathan actually blew 5 of these opportunities.

A) Start of inning, no outs, no runners, 3 run lead: Nathan 13-0 in save opportunities.

B) Start of inning, no outs, no runners, 2 run lead: Nathan 15-3.

C) Start of inning, no outs, no runners, 1 run lead: Nathan 12-2.

To blow a 2-run lead when starting an inning means surrendering at least 8 total bases before you can record 3 outs. That should be a gimme but Nathan only converted these situations at an 83% clip. A 15-3 record in these situations should not be hard to duplicate (or improve upon) by most competent relief pitchers.

In the case of the 1 run lead to start an inning, Nathan converted 86% of these, though more difficult, in theory, than the two-run lead. While a competent relief pitcher may blow a couple more of these, they will probably have converted one or two more of the two-run lead situations than Nathan so I call the entire “Classic Cheap Save” scenarios a tie between Nathan and whoever replaces him this year.

As for Nathan’s other save opportunities, here are instances where non-save opportunities turned into save opportunities and Nathan entered with leads greater than 3 runs but men on base:

D) 1 out in 9th, 5-run lead, bases loaded. Nathan 1-0

E) 2 out in 9th, 4-run lead, runners on 1st & 2nd. Nathan 1-0

F) 2 out in 9th, 4-run lead, runners on 1st & 2nd. Nathan 1-0

G) 1 out in 9th, 4-run lead, runners on 1st & 3rd. Nathan 1-0

Given the leads, these are relatively easy saves, as well. Nathan was 4-0. Any other competent reliever should be 4-0 in these, too. (Okay, maybe 3-1)

We’ve now accounted for 49 of Nathan’s 52 Save opportunities with little or no fall-off in conversions from replacement. Let’s look at the last three.

H) 2 out in 9th, 2-run lead, runner on 1st. Nathan 1-0

I) 8th inning, 1-run lead, runner on 2nd. Nathan 1-0

J) 2 out in 8th, 1 run-lead, NO runners, Nathan 1-0

A relatively competent relief pitcher could convert two if not all three of these situations. In fact, Nathan only inherited two immediately critical situations in regular season save opportunities – the rest were cream puffs.

In what is truning out to be one of the more active off-seasons for the Twins, last night the ballclub added another interesting player by signing Gold Glove (2005, 2006, 2007, 2009) second-baseman Orlando Hudson to a one year contract. In addition to his slick fielding, the 32-year-old Hudson seems like he will fill the number 2 spot in the batting order effectively as he is a switch hitter who makes good contact and draws some walks. There had been some talk about J.J. Hardy batting 2nd, but I like Hardy lower in the order – down around Delmon Young territory.

The Hudson signing is bad news for Alexi Casilla for 2010 – not that I mind. Casilla was just not a consistent player although he did play well in the clutch. Hudson is only signed to a one-year deal, however, so if the 25-year-old Casilla stays in the Twins organization, he could potentially still be in the long-term picture. Nick Punto, while now out of consideration at 2B, still seems to be in the mix at 3B as of today (please, no) or as the Twins untility infielder (I’m fine with that) should the Twins bring back Joe Crede or promote Danny Valencia. My hope is that Crede is recovered from his surgery and that the Twins are still considering him. I like his dependable glove and his right-handed power. Stay tuned.

I just received the best email I’ve gotten in about a year. To quote from it:

“Watch for details coming soon regarding exclusive Open Houses for season ticket holders. Visit the Metropolitan Club, sample some Target Field fare, visit with your Ticket Sales and Service Staff – and pick up your 2010 season tickets! As a bonus we will provide a Fan Guide highlighting everything you need to know about Target Field.”

Woo-Hoo!

With Twins Fest each year comes the pleasant reminder that spring training is just around the corner and that another season in the sun is on the horizon. Of course this year, the Twins’ season really will be in the sun – for the first time since 1981. I wonder if the Twins fans who are young enough to have never known anything else but teflon-roofed baseball (30 and under?) will feel weird when they first step foot in Target Field and see blue sky, clouds, and the Minneapolis skyline? It would have to feel like your mom suddenly turned into a hot chick. Nothing wrong with that, I guess.

Highlights of my Twins Fest included talking to Hall of Famer Bob Feller and getting a signed photo. I watched his interview with Bob Costas on the MLB Network last week and was impressed how robust this man of 91 still is. Feller broke into the majors in the late 1930’s and pitched well into the 1950’s so got to face a host of legends like Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, and Mickey Mantle. Feller also served in WW II, commanding and anti-aircraft unit aboard the U.S.S. Alabama. Quite a man.

I picked up a book at Twins Fest called Twins at the Met by Bob Showers. It’s a nice coffee table book that shows many of the Twins players that called Metropolitan Stadium home between 1961 and 1981. It has some entertaining players’ recollections and a few interesting tidbits of trivia. (The largest Met Stadium crowd ever was not for a sporting event – but for the Eagles Hotel California concert.) Showers was there autographing copies. I mentioned to him as he was signing my book that he had at least two sequels he could write, as well.

I sat down by the KSTP stage and listened to Joe Soucheray and Pat Reusse for a minute or two – long enough to remind me how much I don’t like either. While I’m dissing KSTP on-air persons, I have to again plead with the Twins powers that be to find a replacement for John Gordon. Maybe his play-by-play is beloved in nursing homes, but it is just cringe-enducing to try a listen to him. Now that we have a real ballpark, can we next get a real announcer? Please?

Despite my KSTP rant, I enjoyed Twins Fest as I always do. While I was in the baseball afterglow on the way home, I stopped at my neighborhood video game store and pre-ordered a copy of MLB 10 The Show for PS3. Last year’s version was great so I’m sure this year’s will be too – plus it will have Target Field and a bunch of classic ballparks as well. March 3rd.

Have a speedy recovery, Harmon! Hope to see you at Target Field.

The Twins signed Jim Thome to a one year deal for the 2010 season today their website reports. I am scratching my head on this one as Thome is a left-handed DH and the Twins already have a pretty good left-handed DH in Jason Kubel. The PR coming out of the Twins front office is that the move is to add depth to a thin bench – not that Thome is the first move in a sequence to move a current player on the Twins roster. (Such as trading Delmon Young and moving Kubel to a permanent spot in the outfield? All in favor say “Aye.”)

Mark McGwire has finally admitted to using performance enhancing drugs during his career with Oakland and St. Louis. As crafted by his weasly image consultant/spin doctor/pissy former Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, McGwire’s confession followed the soon-to-be standard Andy Pettitte non-culpability model in which McGwire claimed that he only used the horse steroids to recover from injuries, not to enhance his strength. According to McGwire, none of his homeruns or his ultra cartoony physique were the result of his multi-year use of Human Growth Hormone and anabolic steroids.

Why did he choose to make a confession now? It was time, he claims. He wanted to clear his conscience. He said he couldn’t make his confession at the Congressional hearings in 2005 because the statute of limitatons hadn’t expired and, without an offer of immunity, he couldn’t risk prosecution. (Not for his sake, of course, but for the others that would be involved.) Hence his oh-so deft “I’m not here to talk about the past” tap dance.

If Mark McGwire truly had a functioning conscience, he’s had years since the statute of limitations expired to ease his conscience. He could have had that peace of mind at any time. Funny he waited until the month before he reports to his new job in baseball, isn’t it?

While the former Bash Brother’s quivery lower lip, teardrop-laden eyes, and choked-up voice in Monday’s interview with Bob Costas may move some forgiveniks to pardon McGwire’s transgressions, I only hold him in more contempt. He only admits to using PED’s now that he wants back into baseball – and still has the balls (however shrunken from steroids) to deny he used them to improve his performance.

McGwire, the word that best describes you is Fraud.

Satchel Paige

As we enter the new year and the new decade let me Retweet the sage advice of one Leroy Robert “Satchel” Paige:

1. Avoid fried meats which angry up the blood.
2. If your stomac disputes you, lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts.
3. Keep the juices flowing by jangling around gently as you move.
4. Go very light on the vices, such as carrying on in society. The social ramble ain’t restful.
5. Avoid running at all times.
6. Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.

Happy New Year!